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Where are we headed?
Walking around E3 I found myself really having to hunt for combat simulations. Everywhere I turned there were new versions of first person shooters, hunting and fishing sims, and Pokemon. I had several conversations, off the record so I will not be quoting anyone in this article, with several of the developers, producers, and distributors of the greatest combat simulations released during the past two years. Many of them had similar comments about the state of the market and how that affected their interest in continuing to develop combat simulations. I have paraphrased their comments into a list:
- Combat simulations are by far the most complex programs to develop. They combine the high resolution graphics demanded of a first-person shooter with the complex AI of a strategy game which is made more complex by the research required to accurately represent complex pieces of technology like cockpits, weapons, and flight models.
- There is a retail price-point cap for entertainment software. Distributors believe that this is currently around US$50. The development time and cost for some current combat simulations is longer and higher than office application software which sells for more than US$100 and enjoys a much larger market size.
- The market for very complex combat simulation is small and shrinking (don't argue with me, argue with them).
- The market for first-person shooters, sport sims, and hunting and fishing sims is the fastest growing market segment today.
- The combat simulation market is generally a 30-45 year old male. These users are very demanding compared to the typical 15-25 year olds in the first-person shooter market segment or the typical 20-35 year old in the sporting sim market segment. Combat simulation purchasers return a much higher percentage of their product purchases than either of the other two segments.
- It is tough to make a reasonable return on investment in the combat simulation market.
- The time of the dedicated but impoverished game developer working out of his basement is past.
- The consolidation of producers, developers, and distributors will continue and probably accelerate over the next eighteen months.
Looking over this list it is pretty obvious that our genre is not the most attractive market segment to pursue. The question for everyone on the purchasing side of the counter is, "What can we do to encourage developers, producers, and distributors to continue to participate in the combat simulation market?" To that end, Bob 'de Janitor' Roberts organized the first (that I am aware of) meeting of editors and writers for combat simulation online magazines.
It was great to meet so many of the other writers whose work I have read, often disagreed with, and communicated with over the years. We all expressed a common concern for the future of combat simulations in the near future and long term. There were lots of different points of view on different actions that the writers and publishers might take to help grow and support the user's community. We could not come to any agreements but frankly I had no expectations we would. The group assembled was a slice of the market profile for our segment. Most of us were between 30 and 45, from very diverse backgrounds, with widely differing educations and careers, but united by our love of combat simulations.
Sim Writers and Editors in no particular order:
Sim Arena: Bob "De Janitor" Roberts; SimHQ: Dan "Crash" Crenshaw, Pete "Pygmy" Marone; Frugal's: Mark "Frugal" Bush, Ken "KC23" Cook, William "Bball" Ball, Ian "Chunx" Anderson; Dogfighter: Dusty "Redwolf" Rodes, Gian "Phaetn" Vitzthum, David Ethell; COMBATSIM: Kurt "Froglips" Giesselman.I have probably overlooked someone that was present who will now hate me for life and flame me on every newsgroup and forum. I apologize if I missed you, I really tried to get everyone's name.
I would like to propose that the second meeting of this ad hoc group be convened at the European Flight Sim Convention this fall. I will bet a pound (some kind of British money I hear) that we can get Mark "Frugal" Bush to host. There are many more discussions to be had and ideas to be investigated. I will contact Empire or Wayward about hosting the meal as Maddox Games did at E3.
E3 was great, meeting everyone was great, the prospects for the future are in question.
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